The unanimous decision by the national media to proclaim the Bears team as totally inept and their situation completely hopeless is like nothing I have ever seen, and I'd like to quote Lee Corso with a "not so fast my friend."
This week, the NFL playoffs really kick into high gear. The best teams from the NFL finally get to suit up and show why they earned home field advantage, and usually one team officially establishes itself as the darkhorse candidate for the Superbowl crown as well. This pattern doesn't vary a great deal from year to year: home teams in the divisional playoff round win 79% of the time, and it isn't hard to recall past Wild Card round darlings, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers of 2005-06.
Typically, no one settles on a sure-thing to upset in this round because of the home teams' amazing win/loss record, but this year, the media has decided the Bears are sure to blow another playoff game to the Seahawks.
Let's point out the fallacy in this argument. The number one reason people say the Bears will lose is because of Rex Grossman. They cite his horrible games with ratings of 1.3 and 0.0, and proclaim that he will find some way to blow the game for the Bears.
What they don't happen to mention, though, is that Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck has had just as sketchy a season as Rex Grossman has. Hasselbeck, in fewer games, has been sacked more times and thrown for less yards per game. His rating is a whole 2 points higher than Rex's. (Both QBs ratings are lower than HB Thomas Jones', which only accounts for one pass for -3 yards.) So why is one QB going to blow the game, and the other one won't? That argument isn't logical - the QBs are a wash.
AND, on top of that, even when Grossman has blown it, he has only cost his team the game half the time!! The Bears are so good in the other phases of the game, that his failure to perform has not cost the team as many games as it could have (think Vikings, Cardinals victories). On the other hand, without a strong performance from Hasselbeck, the Seahawks' 7 regular season losses point out that the have no ability to cover up for a signal-caller's mistakes.
Debunking the hype over that popular argument then leads us to the question: of the other players on both teams, which would you have?
The Seahawks that you would rather have: LT Walter Jones, without question. WLB Julian Peterson, definitely. WR Deion Branch, possibly. HB Shaun Alexander, questionably, considering his recent performances, and K Josh Brown, only because he has made some huge pressure kicks this year.
However, 2 of those choices are clearly debatable (K Robbie Gould was the NFL's leading kicker for the majority of the regular season, making his share of pressure kicks, and the HB combo of Jones/Benson seems to be at least equal to the combo of HB Alexander/Morris in Seattle). The rest of the picks, you would absolutely be lying if you didn't say the Bears' guys. The CBs of Vasher and Tillman aren't even comparable to the random scrubs the Hawks have to throw out there this weekend. Though safeties Johnson and Harris aren't necessarily All-Pro caliber, you would still take them over Hamlin and Boulware, who have a reputation of not covering anyone.
LBs Urlacher and Briggs would be taken over any two LBs in the entire NFL, much less the combo of Hill and Tatupu. As for the D-line, yikes, the Bears DE's are far outperforming Grant Wistrom and co. (save Ogunleye, who has actuall come on of late) up in Seattle, and the Bears have much more depth there than the Hawks do.
On offense, we covered the backs. As far as the OL goes, you'd have to go with the unit that has given up fewer sacks (much fewer) and has paved the way for a more effective ground game throughout the season. That unit would be the Bears'. At wideout, WR Muhammad could be said to be less of a threat than WR Branch, but not by much. Neither are true #1 options, and as far as the second wideout goes, WR Berrian of Chicago has been a premier deep threat all year for the Bears, while WR Jackson is out for Seattle and his replacement (Burelson) is not an NFL starter.
At tight end, two former Pro-Bowl TE's are pitted against each other, where TE Stevens has a little more name recognition, but TE Desmond Clark of Chicago leads the way in catches, yards, and touchdowns.
As far as the rest of special teams goes, the Bears have the best returner (Hester), a far better punter (Maynard) and some of the best special teams coverage units in the league (rank 1st-3rd in almost every special teams category).
So, how exactly has this matchup been so celebrated as the upset special?
Previous meetings? Bears won 37-6, so there's no evidence there.
Previous home playoff losses for Bears? Though no one will ever seem to get this through their head, there is absolutely no correlation between what a team does one year and what they do the next. The Bears will not be thinking about last year's game while in the middle of playing this year's game. The Bears are no more prone to make playoff mistakes than any other team out there.
So, how can you say that the Seahawks are a great pick this coming Sunday?
You can only amount it to a hunch, one that is rooted in misinformation, speculation, and imagination.
This doesn't mean the Bears will win. But if they don't, it will be an upset, pure and simple. The Hawks could win, but a betting man wouldn't count on it.
MY NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS
Winners vs. the spread in bold.
Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog
1/13 4:30 ET At Baltimore -4 Indianapolis
1/13 8:00 ET At New Orleans -5 Philadelphia
1/14 1:00 ET At Chicago -8.5 Seattle
1/14 4:30 ET At San Diego -5 New England
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